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Dybban’s guide to the round 20 May

The Premier League begins Saturday’s coupon, where I am hoping for a big bang at Anfield, among other things. Europe’s other top leagues are also visible in the seams when Ligue 1 and Bundesliga offer summit meetings. The decisive play off semi between Carlisle and Bradford as well as the Norwegian cup final, on a neutral ground in Oslo, are also included in the graces.

Here are my early thoughts and moves:

■■ Match 2. Liverpool have given themselves a reasonable chance of Champions League play this autumn after no less than seven straight victories. Klopp’s switch to a 3-2-5-like formation has worked out well, but despite the impressive run of results, The Reds do not have the top 4 in their hands. It still takes a lot for Pool to break into the absolute top tier and I also want to strike a blow for the opposition not being the toughest during this victorious period. That being said, Saturday’s opponents will be a tough nut to crack. Torn Nunez is a question mark and without him an important option is missing in the forward ranks if Klopp’s men were to run away against Aston Villa.

Unai Emery in turn have an optimal squad situation to deal with and the tactically comfortable Spaniard may well ensure that Liverpool sweat it out despite home ground advantage. Villa’s 2-1 win against Tottenham gave a real boost to a European venue where Emery’s absurdly tall back line performed well. Here I will not be surprised if the Spaniard instead puts six men at the back, something that has happened in previous matches. Watkins, Ramsey and McGinn are then players who, in one way or another, can hurt Liverpool’s defense, which shows beauty spots every now and then. The western favorite cabinet is a given, but I won’t buy one at any percentage.

At well over 70%, 65% would have been reasonable, I’m getting very interested in chasing the bangers in the port city as Liverpool look set to be one of the most overvalued favorites on the ticket.

■■ Match 12. It doesn’t happen very often, but for once, Bayern Munich are sweating it out at the top of the Bundesliga. The hard-to-understand coaching change from Nagelsmann to Tuchel came at a sensitive time of the season and I can’t put my hand on the bible and say that most champions look clearly improved since then. Rather the opposite. Nagelsmann put up crushing underlying numbers during his time at the base of FCB and I rather think the performances have been more choppy since Tuchel’s arrival. With a bit of time I’m sure the old Chelsea manager will get his act together, but with only two rounds to go and just a measly point behind second-placed Dortmund, the rest of the season is all about securing the league title. How it looks becomes secondary. However, there are clouds of worry ahead of the meeting with RB Leipzig. Davies and Hernandez drawn with injuries and question marks also exist for summer who had stomach problems in the past few days. Since before is Neuer out with a broken leg. Then I’m not attracted by blindly nailing number one to an excessive percentage.

RB Leipzig has the capacity to match the hosts and the “Bulls” are playing in turn to secure a Champions League place in the autumn. Marco Rose has a more pleasant troop mode to relate to even players who Nkunku, Szoboszlai and Werner there is plenty of edge in the offensive ranks. The first two were behind the 2-1 victory against Werder Bremen and with four straight victories (all categories), the guests travel to the Allianz Arena in top form. I intend to charge for that.

When one is spun up over 70%, just over 10% too much, I welcome the whole team into the game as early as possible.

■■ Match 3. I have really enjoyed Bournemouth in the spring. The Cherries have stood up well in pretty much every single game they have played and have certainly been worthy of their renewed contract. When the big goal is now completed, however, performance has decreased. When a team like this doesn’t have to fight for its life, it won’t be the same thing. It doesn’t seem to work to go out and have some fun when you’re the number less in terms of quality. As Expressen’s columnist Niklas Borg said in our Stryktips podcast: “pigs shouldn’t have fun”. It has resulted in two straight cod and it looked particularly bad last time against Crystal Palace where Bournemouth were completely outplayed and didn’t get a single shot on goal during the whole match. Now the level is raised even further when a highly motivated Manchester United comes to visit.

The visitors are working to secure a Champions League spot and three points here would certainly do the trick. There are still some key pieces on the injury list, but the squad is wide and here looks Rashford out to be ready to play again. The effort at home against Wolverhampton was convincing last time where 2-0 was inferior in terms of chances created. When both class and motivation are on the same page, it’s time to choose a side. I think it should be the best chance for United to take an important third against a checked opposition.

The runner-up is the clear favorite spike I like the most on the coupon.

■■ Match 6. The name-wise most anonymous match on the Stryktipskupongen is found at Brunton Park where Carlisle and Bradford collide. However, I dare to promise that there are not 22 equally tagged players anywhere else as in this arena. A place in the play off final at Wembley is up for grabs with the eventual winner gaining promotion to League One. After the first act, Bradford sits in pole position since Jamie Walker accounted for the match’s only goal in the 1–0 victory, but the numbers did not correspond to the course of events. Carlisle was so good in West Yorkshire and I have a lot of faith in the home team doing justice to their own crowd. In the League Two table, these reigns were noted for 76 points each, but even that was a misrepresentation of reality. Carlisle’s Expected Points was just over 77.6 compared to Bradford which was listed at just over 63.4 in the same category.

The guests thus overperformed their underlying figures and I am not at all convinced that Mrs. Fortuna holds the visitors in hand this Saturday as well. Company Dennis/Moxon are a very sharp duo in Carlisle’s attack and although Bradford have the overall goalscoring league winners, Andy Cook, in their squad I think the former take command in this fight. Knowledge, a strong home game, statistics and the fact that only victory counts speaks for Carlisle who in my book is a cheeky nail to lean on. One nailed!

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Manchester United (match 3)

Manchester United have the top 4 in their own hands and with Rashford back in the squad, the guests should be able to dominate the match against Bournemouth. Motivation and class point to the right and I leave the runner-up alone.


RB Leipzig (match 12)

RB Leipzig possesses a high level of skill and when Bayern Munich did not act as a future champion during Tuchel I close my ears. X2 paves the way for high dividends at the Allianz Arena.


Liverpool (match 2)

Liverpool have lined up wins in the spring but that doesn’t justify an excessive percentage against a skilled Aston Villa. When the punters get left-wing in their view of the match, I look wide and dub Villa as one of the coupon’s hottest bangers.


The expert’s system proposal:

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