After losing 3-0 to Lille in the previous Ligue 1 round, Ajaccio have now taken just four points from the last 36 available (W1, D1, L10), making an instant relegation back to Ligue 2 look all but inevitable. Simply put, the Bears realistically need a perfect five-game run from here on to have any chance of survival – a very remote possibility, especially with a chain of five top-flight wins being something they have never attained this century.
Recent home form provides no solace for Ajaccio, with seven scoring blanks in their previous eight games at the Stade François Coty (W1, D1, L6). Worse yet, the now-relegated bottom club Angers are still the only visiting side that has permitted the Bears to net first there this term, making new Coupe de France holders Toulouse appear worthy pre-match favourites.
Not even a 1-0 defeat to Lens on Tuesday, which bores some hints of a post-cup final success hangover, can detract from this. And with Toulouse already comfortably clear of the bottom four, the Violets’ only remaining objective is to go into overdrive and potentially register a first top-half finish in Ligue 1 since 2014.
Such an achievement is a long shot, but as only the second French side to bag a European spot for 2023/24, Le Téfécé should still be in the same bullish mood that has seen them draw just once as visitors in any competition this term (W8, L9). And such a front-foot approach has often worked lately, with all of Toulouse’s last five away games seeing them net first (W4, L1).
Players to watch: Mounaïm El Idrissy remains the last man to give Ajaccio a lead at any time. Notably, the Bears also have a 50% win rate from his goalscoring games this term (W3, D1, L2) – but Toulouse’s most recent away match winner Zakaria Aboukhlal can better that drastically (W10, D1, L2), and netted a decisive opening goal in January’s cup H2H.
Hot stat: Four of Toulouse’s last five wins over Ajaccio have produced a 0-0 half-time scoreline.